TEM Q2 2026 - Post-Call Earnings Update

Event: Quartr Q2 2026 event Retrieved: 2026-08-04T06:22:24Z Comparison mode: aggressive Scorecard contract: v1

Consensus scorecard

Consensus basis: same-event API Ninjas row for TEM, 2026-07-30 (estimated revenue $379,688,500; estimated EPS -$0.1428), matched on exact ticker and release date. Actuals are from the Quartr release document (total net revenue $382,486k; diluted EPS $0.03 on 182,397k diluted shares). The event's 7/30 preliminary report predates the scorecard contract and suppressed this comparison over a provider-metadata technicality; this table is the formal aggressive-mode result for the event. Note the diluted EPS beat is flattered by $98.5m of unrealized gains on marketable securities inside GAAP net income.

Management and Q&A

• CEO Eric Lefkofsky framed the data business as the standout: "the single best run of three or four quarters we've had ever in terms of momentum," with a new multi-year data licensing and modeling agreement with BioNTech joining AstraZeneca, GSK, Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck, plus deals with Daiichi Sankyo, LevelSet Bio and Incyte inside the roughly $200 million of quarterly bookings.
• The first version of the Tempus foundation model was formally accepted by AstraZeneca after blinded testing against AZ's own tuned models for trial-response prediction. Management called meeting the acceptance criteria "a huge hurdle" and is now building the next version.
• Management put numbers on the regulatory pipeline: tumor-only xT CDx approval unifies solid-tumor DNA under ADLT pricing for an estimated $200 ASP uplift (~$85m annualized from 2027); liquid biopsy xF is with the FDA, expected approval in late 2027 at an assumed $7,500 ADLT price and an incremental $550 ASP lift. Together management sizes ~$400m of revenue uplift in 2028.
• CFO Jim Rogers disclosed the solid-tumor algorithm attach rate rose to 45% in Q2 from 40% in Q1, noting most algorithms are still unreimbursed and contribute no revenue today.
• On the pending Personalis acquisition: MRD volumes ran ~6,500 tests in Q1 and ~9,000 in Q2 (+38% sequentially) with only ~10% of the sales force selling MRD; the sales force will not be expanded until MRD ASPs approach break-even.

Guidance and KPI clarification

• Management stated the raised outlook does not depend on the Personalis transaction (expected close late Q4 2026 or early 2027) and still expects continued adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow improvement in 2027 with the acquisition included.
• Data business growth target clarified as "close to 30% range plus" sustained over a three-to-seven-year horizon, with visibility claimed into 2027 and planning around 2028.
• The convertible notes repaid the Ares Capital loan, saving over $30m of annual interest expense, which management ties to reaching positive free cash flow by year-end.
• On the Ambry rare-disease ramp, management declined to quantify a second-half target; GenomeNext ran ~50% above its first-month expectation on 500-1,000 tests, and hereditary is described as reaching mid-teens growth by year-end.

Updated neutral analysis

• The call reinforced the release: growth is carried by oncology diagnostics and data licensing, and management explicitly said the hereditary and whole-genome ramp is not needed for the guide.
• Several of the largest value claims are 2027-2028 events contingent on FDA action and reimbursement: the $550 xF uplift assumes a $7,500 ADLT price benchmarked to a competitor's approved assay, and the assay is still under review. Management raised that assumption from $230 at its investor day, so the figure has already moved once on pricing read-across rather than a Tempus-specific decision.
• The AstraZeneca relationship was the most-pressed topic. Management could not state the contract end date precisely ("through 2028 or something. I have no idea"), and its expectation of similar 2027 revenue rests on stated intent and committed projects rather than a signed extension.
• On Personalis, an analyst noted TEM shares below $46 could allow the target to terminate. Management said it cannot envision termination, prefers to fund close to half in cash to limit dilution, and has begun arranging a debt facility. The stock sits near that threshold, so the financing mix and floor mechanic remain live variables.
• Management asserted it can absorb incremental spend (e.g., an extra $50m of MRD sales force) by reallocating from cloud and other costs while staying EBITDA- and cash-flow-positive. That flexibility is asserted, not demonstrated, and would be tested if MRD scaling accelerates.

Market context and limitations

• API Ninjas snapshot: TEM $46.05 (NASDAQ, volume 5,520,969) retrieved 2026-08-04T05:59:23Z. This is an overnight snapshot taken well after the July 30 call, not a measurement of the reaction to the call, and the US market was closed.
• The Quartr transcript (document 3935837) became available several days after the call; this post-call stage is filed on 2026-08-04 for a 2026-07-30 call, within the five-business-day transcript window.
• The API Ninjas actual EPS field (-$0.04) matches the company's non-GAAP net loss per share, not GAAP diluted EPS, and is retained as a diagnostic only; the scorecard compares Quartr GAAP diluted EPS against the estimate per aggressive-mode policy (no adjusted EPS was published by the company).
• Management commentary about Personalis ASP trajectory, AstraZeneca renewal, and 2028 revenue uplift is forward-looking management opinion, not reported results.

Sources

• Quartr transcript and Q&A
• Quartr earnings release
• Quartr release income statement page
• Preliminary report