HCC Q2 2026 - Preliminary Earnings Alert

Event: Quartr Q2 2026 event Retrieved: 2026-08-05T20:45:00Z Comparison mode: maximal Scorecard contract: v1 Source status: release=available | financials=earnings release only | transcript=not available (call held 2026-08-05 20:30Z)

Consensus scorecard

Reported results and guidance

Full year 2026 outlook (volume guidance raised by 0.5 million short tons this quarter):

• Scorecard recap: total revenues of $509.7m beat consensus by 4.3% and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.65 beat the $1.40 estimate by 17.9%.
• Sales volumes were a record 3.7 million short tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, up 65%, driven primarily by Blue Creek coal.
• Free cash flow was $103.4m, against negative $56.7m a year ago; operating cash flow was $132.3m versus $37.5m, and capital expenditures and mine development fell to $18.3m from $94.3m.
• Total liquidity at 30 June 2026 was $452.9m: $302.3m cash, $10.1m short-term investments (net of $10.1m posted as collateral), and $140.5m available under the ABL facility net of $2.5m of letters of credit.
• Financing outflows of $14.2m in the quarter were $9.9m of finance lease principal repayments and a $4.2m regular quarterly dividend; on 28 July 2026 the Board declared another $0.08 per share, payable 17 August 2026.
• Average gross selling price realization was approximately 66% of the Platts PLV FOB Australia index, down from 80% a year ago, which the company attributes to a 21% higher sales mix of high-vol A coal sold into the Pacific Basin at elevated freight rates and low second-tier price relativities.
• CEO Walt Scheller said this quarter "marked the start of the next phase of Warrior's growth," with Blue Creek operational and development spending complete.
• Key factors named for the full-year outlook include one longwall move completed in Q2 and three more planned before year end (two in Q3, one in Q4), plus a new labor contract.

Key bullish aspects

• Both scorecard metrics beat: total revenues by 4.3% and GAAP diluted EPS by 17.9%, and both grew enormously year over year (+71.3% and +1,400%).
• Volume and cost moved the right way at once: tons sold rose 64.7% to 3,654 thousand while cash cost of sales per short ton fell 8.5% to $92.53, so cash margin per ton rose 57.0% to $45.29.
• Adjusted EBITDA of $156.9m nearly tripled from $53.6m, and operating income of $94.5m compares with $7.7m a year ago on a business that lost money at the operating line in the first half of 2025.
• Free cash flow inflected to $103.4m from negative $56.7m, driven by both higher operating cash flow ($132.3m vs $37.5m) and an 81% drop in capital spending to $18.3m as Blue Creek construction completed.
• Average net selling price rose 6.0% to $137.82 per short ton despite the mix shift toward lower-realization high-vol A coal, so price and volume both contributed.
• Cost of production fell to 58% of cash cost from 67%, which is consistent with Blue Creek's structurally lower cost base rather than a one-quarter effect.
• SG&A fell 17.8% to $9.8m even as revenue rose 71.3%, helped by a $2.4m gain on Walter Energy bankruptcy recoveries.
• The company raised full-year volume guidance by 0.5 million short tons on customer reception of Blue Creek product, and the guide of 13.0-14.0 million tons sits well above the 6,656 thousand tons sold in the first half.
• Liquidity of $452.9m including $302.3m of cash supports the dividend and the remaining $50m-$75m of Blue Creek capital spending without new financing.
• The six-month picture confirms the turn: revenue up 62.1% to $968.3m and net income of $159.8m against a $(2.6)m loss a year ago.

Key bearish aspects

• Index realization deteriorated sharply: average gross selling price was approximately 66% of the PLV index versus 80% a year ago, so the company is capturing materially less of the benchmark than it did.
• The realization decline is mix- and freight-driven — a 21% higher share of high-vol A coal sold into the Pacific Basin at elevated freight rates — and transportation and royalties rose to 42% of cash cost from 33%.
• Other revenues fell 32.5% to $6.1m and interest income fell 57.8% to $2.1m, while interest expense rose 91.2% to $5.5m, flipping net interest from $2.2m of income to $3.4m of expense.
• Full-year cash cost guidance of $95-$105 per short ton is above both the $92.53 achieved this quarter and the $94.17 first-half figure, so the company is not guiding the second half to hold this cost level.
• The effective tax rate was 4.1% this quarter against 43.5% a year ago; net income benefited from a tax rate the release does not explain or commit to.
• Cost of sales rose 50.2% to $340.0m and depreciation and depletion rose 34.8% to $58.3m as Blue Creek assets entered service; D&D guidance of $225m-$250m implies a further step up in the second half against $110.6m booked so far.
• Three longwall moves are planned before year end (two in Q3, one in Q4) against one in Q2, which weighs on second-half production.
• Capital return remains modest relative to the cash generated: the quarterly dividend is unchanged at $0.08 per share ($4.2m), and no buyback or special dividend is announced in this release.
• A new labor contract is listed among the factors affecting the full-year outlook, and it is not described or costed here.
• Inventory fell to 1.4 million short tons from 1.9 million at 31 March 2026, so part of the record sales volume came from destocking rather than production, which produced 3,347 thousand tons against 3,654 thousand sold.

Key uncertainties

• The release states volume guidance was raised by 0.5 million short tons but does not restate the prior range, and it does not state prior figures for any other guidance line, so which of the nine outlook items changed cannot be determined from this document.
• The label of the first guidance row was not preserved in the extracted table; it is read here as sales volume because the surrounding text discusses a volume-guidance raise and coal production is listed separately on the next line.
• The 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit is cited as a driver of the lower cash cost per ton but is not quantified, so the sustainable cost improvement from Blue Creek alone is not separable here.
• The 4.1% effective tax rate is not explained; the release's risk factors reference net operating losses and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025, but no reconciliation or forward tax rate is given.
• The company does not reconcile its cash cost of sales outlook to GAAP cost of sales, invoking the unreasonable-efforts exception, so the guided cost range cannot be tied to a GAAP forecast.
• Sales exceeded production by 307 thousand tons this quarter and inventory fell 0.5 million tons; the release does not state a target inventory level or how much further destocking is available.
• Chinese import demand is credited with supporting seaborne pricing and Indian steel production growth is called a positive catalyst, but no volumes, contract terms, or customer concentration are disclosed to size either.
• Second-half implied revenue is not derivable: guidance is given in volumes and costs, with no revenue or realized price guide, and realization depends on an index the company does not forecast.
• The $2.4m Walter Energy bankruptcy recovery gain flattered SG&A this quarter and is non-recurring by nature; full-year SG&A guidance of $75m-$85m against $38.0m booked in the first half implies a higher second-half run rate.
• Blue Creek capital expenditures of $50m-$75m remain in the full-year guide against total capital spending of $18.3m in the quarter, so the timing of the remaining spend is unclear.
• The balance sheet and cash flow statements were not read for this preliminary; only the liquidity, operating cash flow, capital expenditure and financing figures quoted in the release narrative are used above.
• The 4:30 p.m. ET call was in progress or just concluded at the time of this report and no transcript is attached; management's account of index realization, the labor contract, and second-half cost guidance is not assessed at this stage.

Market context

• API Ninjas snapshot: HCC $84.30 on NYSE, volume 604,767, quote timestamped 2026-08-05T20:12:37Z, retrieved 2026-08-05T20:33:00Z. The release was published after the U.S. close on 2026-08-05; this is a single quote of unstated session basis captured minutes after the close, not a measured reaction to the release.

Source limitations

• Every actual above comes from the Quartr Q2 2026 earnings release document (3668700). Quartr standardized financials for this event are not yet populated.
• API Ninjas supplied no actual or difference fields for this event, so each beat/miss is calculated locally as Quartr actual minus API Ninjas estimate. The API row carried no fiscal year or quarter, so the exact ticker-and-event-date match path was used.
• Year-over-year percentage changes, the effective tax rates, and the sales-versus-production tonnage difference are calculated from the release's own columns; the release prints some of these percentages itself and they agree.
• Adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, liquidity, and the financing detail are quoted from the release narrative; the condensed balance sheet and cash flow statements in this release were not read for this preliminary.
• Cash cost of sales (free-on-board port), cash margin per ton, and adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP measures as defined by the company; the cash cost reconciliation shown above is the company's own.
• The condensed statements of operations in this release are unaudited.
• Warrior reports in short tons; one short ton is 0.907185 metric tons per the release footnote.
• The release contains no segment table; Blue Creek's contribution is described qualitatively and is not broken out in dollars.

Source links

• Quartr Q2 2026 earnings release
• Quartr release headline results page
• Quartr release operating and pricing detail page
• Quartr release cash flow and liquidity page
• Quartr release 2026 outlook page
• Quartr release statements of operations page
• Quartr release supplemental data and non-GAAP reconciliation page