ABX Q2 2026 - Post-Call Earnings Update
Event: Quartr Q2 2026 event Retrieved: 2026-08-11T11:56:00Z Comparison mode: maximal Scorecard contract: v1
Consensus scorecard
| Metric / basis | Quartr actual | API Ninjas consensus | Beat/Miss | Beat/Miss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue / consolidated total revenue (consensus from NYSE listing B) | $5,292m | $5,096.689m | Beat +$195.311m | +3.8% |
| EPS / adjusted net earnings per share, basic (consensus from NYSE listing B) | $0.82 | $0.81 | Beat +$0.01 | +1.2% |
- Consensus scorecard, bulleted equivalent (carried forward unchanged from the preliminary report for this event):
- Revenue / consolidated total revenue, consensus taken from the NYSE listing B: Quartr actual $5,292m against API Ninjas consensus $5,096.689m - Beat +$195.311m, +3.8%.
- EPS / adjusted net earnings per share (basic), consensus taken from the NYSE listing B: Quartr actual $0.82 against API Ninjas consensus $0.81 - Beat +$0.01, +1.2%.
- MANAGEMENT ADDRESSED THE CONSENSUS QUESTION DIRECTLY ON THE CALL, WHICH CORROBORATES THE EPS BASIS SELECTED HERE. President and CEO Mark Hill went off script to say "adjusted earnings $0.82 per share, is in line with the Bloomberg consensus. There is some media out there this morning says it not, that we missed, but I am not sure what the source of that is." CFO Helen Cai repeated "adjusted EPS of $0.82, in line with Bloomberg consensus." That is a different consensus provider from the one this scorecard uses and is not a substitute for it, but it confirms that management treats adjusted net earnings per share as the comparable measure - the basis this report selected - rather than the $0.73 GAAP figure on which the same estimate would read as a miss. Neither actual was restated on the call.
Management and Q&A
- A $4 BILLION AGREEMENT WITH NEWMONT WAS THE OPENING SUBJECT OF THE CALL AND IS NOT IN THE EARNINGS RELEASE. Hill led with it before the results, saying "I want to go off script straight away to make the lawyers nervous here", and set the headline: "the total value of that package is approximately $4 billion." It was announced in a separate press release the same morning; the earnings release read for the preliminary makes no mention of it.
- THE STRUCTURE OF THE PACKAGE WAS DESCRIBED BUT ITS COMPONENTS WERE REPEATEDLY REFUSED. Answering Daniel Major (UBS), Hill said: "To get to the $4 billion number, it is the value of Fourmile, the 38%. Then you have to net off the value of 61.5% of Fiberline and Mike. There is some money in there to settle some legacy disputes, for want of another word, as well. Then if you want to understand the full value, there's obviously some benefit to Barrick by getting that consent and reducing the friction costs on the IPO." Josh Wolfson (RBC), Tanya Jakusconek and Anita Soni (CIBC) each asked for a component breakdown and each was declined. To Wolfson: "I am not going to break it down. On the prior disputes, I cannot give a number on that." To Soni: "we agree we're just going to go out with a number... I apologize, but no, I can't give you that breakdown." Soni's framing that Barrick is paying for 61.5% of Mike and Fiberline while Newmont pays in for 38.5% of Fourmile was confirmed as "the right way."
- THE HEADLINE FIGURE WAS DEFENDED AGAINST AN ALTERNATIVE READING. Tanya Jakusconek asked whether the price paid should be understood as $4bn plus a $2bn top-up, for $6bn. Hill answered flatly: "No. Tanya, it's $4 billion total package."
- THE ADDED OUNCES WERE SIZED BUT NOT CATEGORISED. Hill said Newmont's Mike and Fiberline properties "add, I think it's around 6.4 million ounces." Asked by Steven Green (TD Cowen) whether those are inferred ounces, Hill said "anyone know what the breakdown of the 6.4 is? I was just going through the presentation before this. I'll get back to you on that." On location and maturity he said Fiberline "is close to the infrastructure at Turquoise Ridge... It's an open pit, so it would be a matter of a satellite deposit", and on Mike, "at this stage, I haven't put a lot of value towards that."
- THERE ARE NO CONTINGENT PAYMENTS. Asked by Bob Brackett (Bernstein Research) whether any payments hinge on exploration upside, Hill said "No, it's done, Bob."
- THE CASH PROCEEDS ARE EARMARKED FOR SHAREHOLDERS. Asked by Jakusconek whether the cash flows into the IPO or into buybacks and the top-up dividend, Hill said "the cash we get back would be the majority of the return to shareholders."
- THE JOINT VENTURE GOVERNANCE CHANGES WERE DISCLOSED. Asked by Lawson Winder (BofA Securities) what additional say Newmont gains, Hill named two concrete items: "when we appoint the general manager of NGM, we have to get their consent to who that is. Which I don't have an issue with that at all", and "we'll likely embed in our executive team at NGM a Newmont employee." He added that Newmont now has access to information and to sites, that the excluded-property-committee provisions are "probably less relevant" now that Fourmile and Mike sit inside the joint venture, and that the negotiation took four months.
- THE STRATEGIC PURPOSE IS A NEVADA PROCESSING REBUILD, AND IT IS SIZED ONLY AS A GUESS. Hill said NGM has had "no increase in processing capacity there for years", that the company is "dealing with 25-year-old infrastructure", that Fourmile currently has to be fed "through the current infrastructure and delay the other" ounces, and that his goal from the outset was to "increase processing capacity" and "stop trucking ore all over the state." Asked by Anita Soni what a new roaster would cost, he said "I would've said it's $2.5 billion. I don't really know, but it'd be around that number." He said the roaster-versus-autoclave choice and its location remain open - "I just haven't got a clear answer on that, but that's what we'll be accelerating starting tomorrow" - and that he cannot begin permitting until the processing decision is made.
- THE COMPANY WAS PUBLICLY CHALLENGED ON WITHHOLDING THE FOURMILE PEA, AND CONCEDED THE POINT. Anita Soni said the PEA "should not have been filed 45 days after you announced" it, that investors have no barometer "outside of a slide deck", and that this is driving valuation dispersion. Hill responded by naming the share move himself: "Because you reckon that's why our share price is down 7%?" Soni tied the two together, citing uncertainty about Fourmile's value inside the $4bn. Wessel Hamman said the PEA "was conceptual in nature and still up to technical." Hill then committed: "We will take that away and see how we can do a better job of that. I understand what you're asking, so I'll work something out and come back to you." Soni also noted that a net profits interest "was embedded in there, but nobody knew about it."
- FOURMILE ECONOMICS WERE RESTATED AND ADJUSTED FOR THE GOLD PRICE. Daniel Major cited the 2025 PEA parameters as 600,000-750,000 ounces, $1.5bn-$1.7bn of capital and $650-$700 per ounce all-in sustaining costs, and asked whether the cost range still holds given the additional processing capital. Hill said "comparable", Hamman added "depending where we locate that roaster, you could actually exceed", and a further Barrick speaker identifying himself as Alan gave a sensitivity: the PEA AISC was set at roughly $2,500 per ounce consensus gold, sensitivity is "about $100 sensitivity for every $1,000 if the gold price moves", and at today's long-term consensus of about $3,600 per ounce the right approach is "the range that we put up previously plus $100." He confirmed this "includes all royalties, including the deck." Hamman separately put the Fourmile conceptual PEA capital at "$1.5 billion-$1.7 billion that we'll be spending over the next few years."
- FOURMILE MAY NOT COME ON EARLIER, BUT IS TARGETED TO RAMP HARDER. Asked by Lawson Winder whether the asset can now beat the early-2030s indication, Hill said his intention is to accelerate and that the Newmont agreement helps, but "we are still going to be limited by permitting timelines", and concluded "it may not come on earlier, but hopefully when it comes on, we will be able to ramp it up a lot quicker and to actually a higher production target." The prefeasibility study remains targeted for the end of 2028, with 20 active drill rigs.
- THE FREE CASH FLOW DECLINE WAS EXPLAINED WITH TWO SPECIFIC CAUSES. Cai said "the second quarter is typically our lowest each year for free cash flow due to the timing of our annual tax and interest payment", that the quarter also carried "a one-time $200 million payment related to Loulo-Gounkoto", and that "excluding this, attributable free cash flow for the quarter would have been over 60% higher year-over-year" rather than 33% lower.
- THE $200M MALI PAYMENT WAS EXPLAINED, AND A FURTHER $48M DEMAND WAS DISCLOSED. Asked by Martin Pradier (VERITAS Investment Research) why the charge did not appear earlier, Cai said the payment is "additional royalties, penalties, and associated interest based on the retrospective application of the 2023 mining code, specifically for the year of 2024 and 2025", that earlier years were already settled, that "we paid cash $200 million in April", and - new and post-quarter - that "we had a further payment demand of $48 million that was received in July." George Joannou explained the sequencing: the original agreement covered only up to 2023, Barrick continued applying its original conventions during the dispute, and a reconciliation with the government for 2024 and 2025 was therefore required.
- SECOND-HALF PRODUCTION PHASING WAS GIVEN, RESOLVING A PRELIMINARY GAP. Hill said "for the third quarter, we expect gold production to be higher than Q2, consistent with that plan, and we expect even higher production in the fourth quarter. Copper production should also increase in the second half of the year relative to the first half."
- MANAGEMENT EXPLICITLY DENIED THAT GUIDANCE IS CONSERVATIVE, AND NAMED TWO CURRENT OUTAGES NOT IN THE RELEASE. Asked by Bennett Moore (JP Morgan) how much conservatism is baked in given NGM and Pueblo Viejo tracking to the high end, Hill said "I don't think it's conservatism necessarily", disclosed that "we've had Veladero down for, I think it's two weeks now. We had a weather event where we had to evacuate everyone", and that "Porgera has been down for the opposite reason, because Wiley Creek Dam dried up and we had to shut the whole plant down." He characterised both as "Mother Nature events. They're not actually operational problems", said he remains confident of hitting guidance, and concluded "I still think the guidance is fine, but it's certainly not conservative."
- THE REKO DIQ REDUCTION IS A DECISION, NOT A TIMING SHIFT, AND WAS QUANTIFIED. Hill said "we have decided we will not start building the plant this year", and that 2026 attributable capital expenditure for the project falls from "$600 million-$700 million" to "$450 million-$500 million." He attributed the group reduction to $3.8bn-$4.2bn to "the lower spend on the Lumwana and Reko Diq", where the release named Reko Diq primarily. On Lumwana he said 2026 capital expenditure should "come in at the lower end of guidance", the project remains on budget, the mill expansion "will double the copper production", and first copper is on track for the end of the first quarter of 2028.
- THE IPO STAYS AT 10% AND WILL NOT BECOME A SPIN-OUT. Asked by Josh Wolfson whether the resolution allows a larger float, Hill said "it'll still stay at 10%. I don't see any of that just the way the company is structured." Asked by Lawson Winder whether a full IPO of the North American entity is contemplated, he said "not at this point... there's no update that we're going to go past 10%." An emailed question read out by Emily Chieng asked about distributing shares to existing holders instead of an IPO; Hill answered "A lot of people ask that question. The short answer is no." Asked by Martin Pradier about floating 10% of the rest-of-world business, he said "we have not had that discussion. It's never come up, so it's certainly not on the table at the moment."
- THE IPO STRUCTURE IS BEING REOPENED BECAUSE OF THE NEWMONT CONSENT. Joannou said that with the agreement in hand, "one of the things we want to do is go back and look at how previous structures and compare that to what we have today... because we think there are big savings there", including where the entity is domiciled. He said the process is "actually very close" but gave no marketing-process date - "absolutely there will be a marketing process", timing unstated. Hill said all operating and separation agreements between Barrick and the new company are complete and the IPO remains on track for completion by year end, with the vast majority of net proceeds returned to shareholders.
- MARK HILL WILL LEAD THE NEW COMPANY, AND BARRICK'S OWN CEO SEARCH IS ADVANCED. Hill said "the Board has selected me to lead the new company as a CEO on launch." Asked by Daniel Major about recruiting for the parent, he said "We're advancing that discussion, right, for the next leader of Barrick. We'll be updating you, I would say, shortly... It's an advanced process." Asked by Lawson Winder whether an internal or external candidate is preferred, he said "my preference is always internal, but at this stage, we haven't got to that conclusion yet... There's internal and external candidates."
- SAFETY WAS PLACED FIRST AND THE RESULT WAS CALLED UNACCEPTABLE. Hill said the frequency rate fell quarter on quarter "from 0.92 to 0.77" but that "disappointingly, we still had six LTIs. There is still a lot of work to do. It is completely unacceptable." He said leaders through to the executive committee are spending more time at sites, and that the company has "invested over $90 million this year in technology to improve safety", spanning equipment automation, vehicle dash cams, safety reporting software and AI analytics.
- LOULO-GOUNKOTO IS SELF-FUNDING AND THE OPEN PITS ARE A 2027 EVENT. Asked by Bennett Moore about the push into open pit ore and the capital required, Joannou said the operation "has become self-sustaining. Therefore, any capital and growth at the moment that we are funding is self-sustained funding", and that growth next year starts from "the Baboto pushbacks, and the open pits on probably early or middle of the second quarter", with the company "starting to move into the open pits in the first half of next year."
- THE REST-OF-WORLD PORTFOLIO IS A GROWTH PRIORITY, NOT A DISPOSAL LIST. Asked by Bob Brackett whether the IPO absorbs attention that would otherwise go to portfolio management outside North America, Hill said the rest of the world "is actually one of our biggest growth things", that a recent board meeting held "a whole session on growth for the rest of the world", and that "the current plan is definitely grow the rest of the world." Sebastiaan Bock added that brownfields growth around existing operations with embedded infrastructure represents "probably the lowest cost ounces you're going to add into your production profile." No divestments were signalled.
- SEGMENT PROFITABILITY WAS DISAGGREGATED. Hill said Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo together "accounted for 53% of our total attributable adjusted EBITDA at a margin of 61%", that other regions delivered margins of 59%, and that copper "delivered comparable margins to our gold business."
- CAPITAL RETURNS WERE PUT ON A CUMULATIVE BASE. Cai said the company completed $1.2bn of share repurchases in the quarter out of the $3bn authorisation announced last quarter, and that "in the three quarters since new leadership began in October 2025, Barrick has returned $3 billion in dividends and buybacks to shareholders, more than double the prior corresponding period." She confirmed the balance sheet carries an undrawn $3bn revolving credit facility and "no meaningful debt due until 2033."
- PUEBLO VIEJO RESETTLEMENT WAS QUANTIFIED. Hill said "we now have 90% of resettlement packages being accepted", alongside permitting and construction progress on the tailings facility, haul roads and water treatment plant.
- ONE ANSWER WAS DEFERRED FOR LACK OF THE NUMBER. Asked by Bennett Moore about NGM turnover trends, Hill said "It was 14%. Someone else brought this up. Does anyone know what the answer is? I'll have to get back to you on that", while asserting that the NGM culture "has, in my opinion, turned around completely."
- OTHER CAPITAL ITEMS WERE NAMED. Hamman said the company is pulling capital forward this year for truck fleet replacement at Turquoise Ridge and for autonomous hauling at Carlin, and that it still expects "to land our capital alignment with what we guide a few years ago, at least for North America."
Guidance and KPI clarification
| 2026 guidance item | Position on the call | Position in the release | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attributable gold production | 2,900-3,250koz | 2,900-3,250koz | reiterated |
| Gold all-in sustaining costs | $1,760-$1,950/oz | same | reiterated |
| Attributable copper production | 190-220kt | same | reiterated |
| Copper all-in sustaining costs | $3.45-$3.75/lb | same | reiterated |
| Total attributable capital expenditure | $3.8bn-$4.2bn, on lower Lumwana and Reko Diq spend | $3.8bn-$4.2bn, primarily Reko Diq | Lumwana added as a driver on the call |
| Reko Diq 2026 attributable capital expenditure | $450m-$500m, down from $600m-$700m; plant construction will not start this year | not disclosed | new on the call |
| Lumwana 2026 capital expenditure | lower end of guidance; project on budget | not disclosed at project level | new on the call |
| Q3 gold production | higher than Q2 | not phased | new on the call |
| Q4 gold production | higher than Q3 | not phased | new on the call |
| H2 copper production | higher than H1 | not phased | new on the call |
| Conservatism in the guide | explicitly none; "certainly not conservative" | not addressed | new on the call |
| North American IPO | on track by year end; 10% minority only; no spin-out; structure and domicile being re-examined | on track by year end | expanded on the call |
| Dividend policy | $0.175 quarterly base plus year-end top-up to 50% of attributable free cash flow | same | reiterated |
| Disclosure made on the call | Figure | Prior reference |
|---|---|---|
| Newmont agreement, total package | approximately $4bn; components refused | not in the earnings release |
| Ounces added by Mike and Fiberline | approximately 6.4m; category breakdown unknown, management to revert | not in the earnings release |
| Contingent payments in the agreement | none | not in the earnings release |
| Negotiation length | four months | not disclosed |
| Newmont consent right | approval of the NGM general manager appointment | not disclosed |
| Newmont personnel | a Newmont employee likely embedded in the NGM executive team | not disclosed |
| Indicative new roaster cost | approximately $2.5bn, explicitly a rough estimate; roaster versus autoclave and location undecided | not disclosed |
| Fourmile conceptual PEA capital | $1.5bn-$1.7bn over the next few years | not disclosed |
| Fourmile PEA parameters cited by an analyst, uncorrected | 600-750koz, $1.5bn-$1.7bn capital, $650-$700/oz AISC | not disclosed |
| Fourmile AISC gold-price sensitivity | ~$100/oz per $1,000/oz gold move; add ~$100 at ~$3,600/oz consensus; includes all royalties and the net profits interest | not disclosed |
| Fourmile drilling | 20 active rigs | not disclosed |
| One-time Loulo-Gounkoto payment | $200m cash paid in April, for 2024 and 2025 retrospective mining-code royalties, penalties and interest | not disclosed |
| Further Mali payment demand | $48m received in July | not disclosed |
| Attributable free cash flow excluding the one-time payment | would have been over 60% higher year over year | −33% as reported |
| Veladero | down approximately two weeks on a weather event requiring evacuation | not disclosed |
| Porgera | plant shut down after Wiley Creek Dam dried up | not disclosed |
| NGM plus Pueblo Viejo share of attributable adjusted EBITDA | 53%, at a 61% margin | not disclosed |
| Other regions' margin | 59% | not disclosed |
| Safety frequency rate | 0.77, from 0.92 quarter on quarter; six lost-time injuries | not disclosed |
| Safety technology investment | over $90m this year | not disclosed |
| Pueblo Viejo resettlement | 90% of packages accepted | not disclosed |
| Cumulative shareholder returns since October 2025 | $3bn over three quarters, more than double the prior corresponding period | $1.5bn in the quarter |
| Revolving credit facility / debt maturity | $3bn undrawn; no meaningful debt due until 2033 | not disclosed in the pages read |
| Loulo-Gounkoto open pits | Baboto pushbacks, early to middle of Q2 2027; operation self-funding | not disclosed |
| NGM turnover | thought to be 14%; not confirmed, management to revert | not disclosed |
| Component values inside the $4bn | explicitly refused | not disclosed |
| Africa & Middle East cost gap versus regional guidance | not raised by anyone | disclosed in the release tables |
- Guidance and KPIs, bulleted equivalent: all 2026 production and cost guidance was reiterated unchanged and management explicitly disclaimed conservatism in it. The call supplied the phasing the release omitted: third-quarter gold production above the second quarter, fourth quarter above the third, and second-half copper above the first half. The capital expenditure reduction to $3.8bn-$4.2bn was explained as a decision not to begin Reko Diq plant construction this year, cutting that project's 2026 attributable spend from $600m-$700m to $450m-$500m, plus lower Lumwana spend expected at the bottom of its range. A $4bn agreement with Newmont, announced separately the same morning and absent from the earnings release, was the leading item: it nets Newmont's 38.5% of Fourmile against Barrick's purchase of 61.5% of Mike and Fiberline, which add approximately 6.4 million ounces, plus a legacy dispute settlement and the value of Newmont's IPO consent, with no contingent payments and cash proceeds largely destined for shareholders. The North American IPO remains a 10% minority sale by year end, will not become a spin-out, and its structure and domicile are being re-examined for savings now that consent is secured. Two current operational outages not in the release were disclosed - Veladero down about two weeks on weather and Porgera shut after a dam dried up - alongside a $48m further Mali payment demand received in July.
Updated neutral analysis
- What the call resolved from the preliminary: the driver of the 33% decline in attributable free cash flow, which management attributes to normal second-quarter tax and interest timing plus a one-time $200m Mali payment, without which it says the measure would have risen over 60%; the nature of the Reko Diq capital reduction, now disclosed as a decision not to start plant construction this year rather than a phasing change, with the project-level cut quantified; the addition of Lumwana as a second driver of the group capital cut; the second-half production phasing across both metals; the identity of the new company's CEO and the confirmation that the float stays at 10% with no spin-out alternative; and the composition, at a high level, of a $4bn transaction that had no presence in the earnings release at all.
- What the call did not resolve: any component value inside the $4bn package, refused four separate times; whether the 6.4 million ounces at Mike and Fiberline are measured, indicated or inferred, which management could not answer; the $146m gap between net earnings and adjusted net earnings, never itemised; the Africa & Middle East all-in sustaining cost of $2,039 per ounce against a $1,360-$1,460 full-year regional guide, which no analyst raised and no member of management mentioned; the South America and Asia Pacific first-half production of 133koz against a 630-730koz full-year guide, addressed only obliquely through the Veladero outage; the $983m of consolidated revenue not captured in the attributable gold and copper lines; the reconciliation between $141m of quarterly attributable free cash flow and $1.5bn returned under a policy targeting 50% of that measure; a marketing-process date for the IPO; and NGM turnover, which management undertook to provide later.
- THE NEWMONT AGREEMENT IS THE MATERIAL EVENT AND IT WAS PRESENTED WITHOUT A VALUATION BRIDGE. Management gave a single net number and the identity of the four items inside it, then declined every attempt to size them individually. Because one of the four is Fourmile - the asset whose value analysts said they cannot model - and another is an unquantified litigation settlement, the $4bn cannot be decomposed by an outside party. Management's own framing acknowledged the problem when Hill asked an analyst whether the missing Fourmile disclosure was why the shares were down 7%.
- THE FOURMILE DISCLOSURE GAP WAS RAISED, CONCEDED AND LEFT OPEN. Anita Soni's challenge - that the PEA was never filed, that a slide deck is not a substitute, and that valuation dispersion follows directly from that - drew agreement rather than rebuttal. Hill said he would "take that away" and "work something out and come back to you." Until that happens, the largest single component of both the Newmont transaction and the IPO narrative rests on a conceptual study that outside parties cannot examine.
- THE FREE CASH FLOW EXPLANATION IS SPECIFIC AND CHECKS AGAINST THE REPORTED FIGURES, WITH ONE RESIDUAL. Attributable free cash flow of $141m against $212m a year earlier is a $71m decline; a $200m one-time payment more than accounts for it, which supports management's claim that the underlying measure improved. What the explanation does not address is the sequential collapse from $1,213m, or the fact that $1.5bn was returned to shareholders in a quarter that generated $141m on the measure the dividend policy is built on. The tax-and-interest seasonality is a genuine reason for a weak second quarter; it does not by itself reconcile distribution to generation.
- A SECOND MALI PAYMENT DEMAND IS OUTSTANDING AND UNPROVISIONED IN ANY DISCLOSED FIGURE. The $48m demand received in July is post-quarter, was volunteered rather than asked for, and follows a pattern management itself described as fluid: an agreement covering periods to 2023, a reconciliation for 2024 and 2025 producing $200m, and now a further demand. No view was offered on whether more follows.
- TWO PRODUCTION OUTAGES ARE LIVE AND MANAGEMENT DECLINED THE COMFORT OF CALLING GUIDANCE CONSERVATIVE. Veladero has been down about two weeks and Porgera's plant is shut. Both sit in the two regions already furthest behind their full-year guidance ranges - South America and Asia Pacific has delivered 133koz of a 630-730koz guide. Management's position is that guidance still holds and is "certainly not conservative", which is candid and also removes the buffer an investor might otherwise assume behind a maintained range.
- THE REGIONAL COST GAPS WENT COMPLETELY UNEXAMINED FOR A SECOND TIME. The Africa & Middle East region reported $2,039 per ounce of all-in sustaining costs against a $1,360-$1,460 full-year guide, and $1,944 for the half. That is the single largest arithmetic tension in the release, it requires a very large second-half reduction for consolidated cost guidance to hold, and across ten analyst lines and a full set of prepared remarks nobody mentioned it. Consolidated cost guidance was reiterated without reference to it.
- THE NEVADA PROCESSING THESIS IS COHERENT AND ENTIRELY UNCOSTED. Hill's case is that NGM's constraint is 25-year-old processing infrastructure and ore trucking rather than orebody, that the Newmont agreement removes the resource-allocation dispute that blocked a solution, and that new capacity raises production and lowers unit costs. The figure attached to it is a stated guess - "I would've said it's $2.5 billion. I don't really know" - the technology choice is undecided, the location is undecided, and permitting cannot begin until those are settled. Against $3.8bn-$4.2bn of current annual attributable capital expenditure, an unscoped $2.5bn project is a material forward claim on capital that carries no timeline.
- REOPENING THE IPO STRUCTURE IS PRESENTED AS A SAVING AND ALSO INTRODUCES SCHEDULE RISK. Joannou said the company will re-examine prior structures and domicile now that consent is secured because "we think there are big savings there", while maintaining a year-end completion target and declining to date the marketing process. Those two positions coexist but the work described is not trivial, and no interim milestone was offered.
- MANAGEMENT PRE-EMPTED A CONSENSUS NARRATIVE, WHICH IS ITSELF INFORMATION. Hill interrupted his own script to dispute media reporting of a miss and to assert an in-line adjusted result. The distinction between $0.82 adjusted and $0.73 reported is exactly the basis question flagged in the preliminary, and the difference between a beat and a roughly 10% miss on the same estimate depends entirely on which figure is used. Management's intervention confirms the adjusted basis is the one it expects to be judged on; it does not establish which basis any given estimate was compiled on.
- NOTHING ON THE CALL CHANGED THE CONSENSUS SCORECARD. Both rows are carried forward from the preliminary unchanged and no reported second-quarter figure was restated.
Market context and limitations
- SCOPE OF TRANSCRIPT READ: the transcript for Quartr event 665955 is complete and not live. It was read in full - all 195 paragraphs, covering the operator's introduction, the forward-looking statement from Vice President of Investor Relations Emily Chieng, prepared remarks from President and CEO Mark Hill and Senior EVP and CFO Helen Cai, the entire Q&A including a read-out emailed question, and the close.
- THE NEWMONT PRESS RELEASE ITSELF WAS NOT READ. Every figure and structural description of that agreement in this report comes from what management said on the call. Chieng referred to "press releases issued before the markets opened this morning" in the plural; only the earnings release, document 3688102, was read, and it was read for the preliminary. No separate Newmont-agreement document has been retrieved or verified. The presentation deck referenced repeatedly, and the MD&A document 3997297, were also not read.
- Ten analyst lines were called and nine asked questions: Josh Wolfson (RBC), Tanya Jakusconek (no firm stated by the operator), Lawson Winder (BofA Securities, twice), Anita Soni (CIBC), Daniel Major (UBS), Bennett Moore (JP Morgan), Bob Brackett (Bernstein Research), Steven Green (TD Cowen) and Martin Pradier (VERITAS Investment Research). Matthew Murphy (BMO Capital Markets) was called but could not be heard and asked nothing. A final emailed question from someone identified only as "Daniel" was read out by Emily Chieng.
- SPEAKER ATTRIBUTION CAVEAT: besides Hill and Cai, four further Barrick speakers appear - George Joannou, Wessel Hamman and Sebastiaan Bock, named in the transcript's own speaker fields, and one speaker the transcript does not attribute who self-identifies mid-answer as "Alan speaking." The Fourmile gold-price sensitivity is attributed to that unnamed speaker on the strength of his own self-identification.
- TWO NUMBERS SPOKEN ON THE CALL ARE INTERNALLY IMPOSSIBLE AND ARE REPRODUCED RATHER THAN CORRECTED. First, in the same answer in which he declined a breakdown, Hill said "the overall value that we had on the table when we ended this discussion was about $14 million", which cannot be reconciled with the $4bn package and appears to be a transcription artefact; no figure from that sentence is used anywhere in this report. Second, the speaker giving the Fourmile sensitivity said "the gold price has moved $5,000 since" while describing a move from roughly $2,500 to roughly $3,600 per ounce. The $100-per-$1,000 sensitivity and the resulting "previously plus $100" conclusion are as spoken and are recorded on that basis.
- A MARGIN FIGURE IS QUOTED TWO WAYS. Cai said attributable adjusted EBITDA of $2.5bn came "with a 59% margin"; the release table states 60% for the quarter and gives 59% for other regions specifically. The release figure of 60% is retained in the scorecard-adjacent tables and Cai's 59% is reproduced only where attributed to her.
- Management's spoken figures are rounded against the release throughout: $1.2bn of net earnings against $1,217m, $1.36bn of adjusted net earnings against $1,363m, $2.5bn of attributable adjusted EBITDA against $2,545m, $1.2bn of net cash against $(1,245)m, $1.4bn of year-to-date attributable free cash flow against $1,354m, and $1.2bn of buybacks against $1,209m. The release figures are retained throughout this report.
- API Ninjas price snapshot for the NYSE listing B: $40.91 with volume of 27,613,353, timestamped 2026-08-11T11:53:03Z. This is identical in price and volume to the snapshot taken for the preliminary at 2026-08-10T22:51:14Z, which means it is a stale quote carrying the prior session's volume rather than a live pre-market print. No market reaction to the release, the Newmont agreement or the call is characterized here. The "down 7%" figure quoted above is Mark Hill's own remark during the call and is recorded as a management statement, not as a measured price move from any source in this project.
- Every figure in the consensus scorecard is carried forward from the preliminary report for this event and was not recalculated. The listing and EPS-basis caveats recorded in the preliminary still stand: the consensus comes from the API Ninjas row for the NYSE listing B rather than the Quartr primary ticker ABX, config/listing-map.json has no ABX-to-B entry so the row was assembled outside the configured cross-listing path, and the EPS row's direction is basis-sensitive - on net earnings per share of $0.73 the same estimate would read as a 9.9% miss. Management's in-line-with-Bloomberg statement supports the adjusted basis but does not establish the basis of the API Ninjas estimate.
- All figures attributed to management above are as spoken on the call and were not recomputed from the release. No arithmetic was performed locally in this report.
- The Fourmile PEA parameters of 600-750koz, $1.5bn-$1.7bn of capital and $650-$700 per ounce all-in sustaining costs were introduced by an analyst and not contradicted by management, who answered around them. They are recorded as uncorrected analyst figures rather than as company disclosures.
- This report is factual only. It contains no ranking, no recommendation, and no view on the security.