SPCE Q2 2026 - Preliminary Earnings Alert
Verdict
- Revenue beat, but the number is immaterial: $0.13m against $0.13m consensus, +5.8%, down from $0.41m a year ago. Revenue is access fees from future astronauts, not flights.
- EPS beat: GAAP loss of $(0.50) against $(0.64) consensus, 22.2% better, helped by an $8.6m gain on debt extinguishment and a share count that rose to 110.8m from 45.6m.
- First commercial spaceflight slips from Q4 2026 to February 2027 to complete avionics and systems installations; the second ship is planned for March 2027 and positive quarterly cash flow is now expected "within 2027". New guidance: free cash flow of $(95)–(100)m in Q3 and $(80)–(90)m in Q4.
- The one thing that matters: the guided burn consumes most of the cash before the first paying flight. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $286m at June 30, and the company's own second-half free-cash-flow guidance totals $175–190m — with the at-the-market equity programme described as substantially completed.
Consensus scorecard
| Metric / basis | Quartr actual | API Ninjas consensus | Beat/Miss | Beat/Miss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (total revenue) | $0.13m | $0.13m | Beat +$0.01m | +5.8% |
| EPS (GAAP basic and diluted) | $(0.50) | $(0.64) | Beat +$0.14 | +22.2% |
Key metrics
| Metric | Reported | Prior year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.13m | $0.41m | -67% |
| GAAP total operating expenses | $65m | $70m | -7% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $(52)m | $(52)m | flat |
| Free cash flow | $(91)m | $(114)m | improved $23m |
| Cash, equivalents and marketable securities | $286m | — | — |
| Weighted-average shares | 110.8m | 45.6m | +143% |
A tranche of expeditions priced at $750,000 was oversubscribed and booked out ahead of schedule, adding over $50m to expected future spaceflight revenue.
Guidance changes
| Metric | New guidance | Prior guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| First commercial spaceflight | February 2027 | Q4 2026 | Delayed |
| Second spaceship in fleet | March 2027 | Not previously given | New |
| Positive quarterly cash flow | Within 2027 | Not previously given | New |
| Q3 2026 free cash flow | $(95)m – $(100)m | Not previously given | New |
| Q4 2026 free cash flow | $(80)m – $(90)m | Not previously given | New |
Quality of earnings
- The loss narrowed on a one-off, not on operations. Net loss improved to $55.9m from $67.3m, but $8.6m of that is a gain on extinguishment of debt with no prior-year equivalent, and adjusted EBITDA was flat at $(52)m.
- Per-share improvement is diluted-away, not earned. The loss per share of $(0.50) against $(1.47) reflects 110.8m weighted-average shares versus 45.6m; the dollar loss fell 17% while the share count rose 143%.
- Spending has shifted, not fallen. Research and development dropped to $4.3m from $20.1m while spaceline operations rose to $28.2m from $14.2m — total operating expenses fell only 7% to $65m as the cost base moved from building the vehicle to running it.
Gotchas & watch items
- Guided second-half free cash outflow of $175–190m against $286m of cash and securities leaves roughly $96–111m at year-end, with first revenue flights not until February 2027 and the at-the-market programme substantially complete.
- $17.9m of notes due February 2027 mature in the same month the first commercial flight is now scheduled.
- Interest income fell to $2.4m from $5.8m as the balance was drawn down, removing an offset to the burn.
- Customer deposits were $80.3m at June 30 against $78.5m at December 31, so the $750,000 tranche's "over $50 million" of expected future revenue has not yet arrived as cash.
Event: https://web.quartr.com/companies/10237/events/669474/overview Retrieved: 2026-08-12T20:55:00Z Comparison mode: maximal · Scorecard contract: v1 The call was scheduled for 21:00Z and had not been held when this was written.