STUB Q2 2026 - Preliminary Earnings Alert
Verdict
- Revenue beat: $573.1m against $513.3m consensus, +11.6%, up 33% year over year on gross merchandise sales of $3.1bn, up 34%.
- EPS miss: GAAP diluted $(0.00) against $0.11 consensus. Net income was $14.6m, but after allocations, net income attributable to common stockholders was negative $40 thousand.
- The raise is GMS only: full-year gross merchandise sales lifted to $10.1–10.3bn, while adjusted EBITDA is reiterated at $400–420m — the extra volume is guided to carry no extra profit.
- The one thing that matters: adjusted EBITDA and GAAP operating income are telling opposite stories. Adjusted EBITDA rose 94% to $105.7m, but income from operations fell 22% to $19.5m from $25.1m, because general and administrative expense nearly doubled to $146.3m from $74.5m. The quarter also leans on a "record-setting World Cup" that does not recur.
Consensus scorecard
| Metric / basis | Quartr actual | API Ninjas consensus | Beat/Miss | Beat/Miss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (total revenue) | $573.1m | $513.3m | Beat +$59.7m | +11.6% |
| EPS (GAAP diluted, attributable to common stockholders) | $(0.00) | $0.11 | Miss -$0.11 | -100.0% |
Key metrics
| Metric | Reported | Prior year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross merchandise sales | $3.1bn | $2.3bn | +34% |
| Revenue | $573.1m | $430.3m | +33% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $105.7m | $54.3m | +94% |
| Income from operations (GAAP) | $19.5m | $25.1m | -22% |
| Free cash flow | $309.7m | $9.7m | +$300.0m |
| Net leverage | 3.0x | 4.5x (Dec-25) | -1.5x |
Debt was reduced by $200m year to date and $1.1bn over the last twelve months; cash was $1.7bn against $1.2bn of payments due to sellers.
Guidance changes
| Metric | New guidance | Prior guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 gross merchandise sales | $10.1bn – $10.3bn | Lower range, not restated | Increased |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA | $400m – $420m | $400m – $420m | Reiterated |
Quality of earnings
- The adjusted number moves opposite to the reported one. Adjusted EBITDA rose 94% to $105.7m and its margin gained roughly 600bp to 18%, while GAAP income from operations fell to $19.5m from $25.1m — general and administrative expense went to $146.3m from $74.5m, growth of 96% against 33% revenue growth.
- The swing to net income is below the operating line and partly tax. Net income of $14.6m came from $12.2m of pre-tax income plus a $2.4m tax benefit; the year-ago $53.8m loss carried a $61.1m loss on debt extinguishment and $43.9m of interest expense, against $22.2m of interest expense now.
- Almost none of the profit belonged to common shareholders. Net income of $14.6m became $(40) thousand attributable to common stockholders, a $14.6m allocation away from the common line, which is why diluted EPS printed at $(0.00) despite a profitable quarter.
Gotchas & watch items
- Raising GMS to $10.1–10.3bn while leaving adjusted EBITDA at $400–420m implies zero incremental margin on the added volume, and the release does not explain why.
- Revenue grew 33% against GMS growth of 34%, so the take rate of roughly 19% edged down rather than up on record volume.
- Operating cash flow of $321.9m is stated as "inclusive of net inflows of buyer receipts and seller payments" — float, not earnings — and $1.2bn of the $1.7bn cash balance is owed to sellers.
- The quarter is anchored on a World Cup that management calls record-setting; there is no disclosure of what GMS or revenue would have been without it.
Event: https://web.quartr.com/companies/21381/events/668322/overview Retrieved: 2026-08-12T20:50:00Z Comparison mode: maximal · Scorecard contract: v1 The company publishes no adjusted EPS, so the GAAP diluted figure is scored against consensus; the call was scheduled for 21:00Z.