AERO Q2 2026 - Post-Call Earnings Update
Verdict
- Guidance reiterated, not raised — and management said why. The CFO called the 2026 numbers "probably on the lower end for the moment" but declined to raise them, citing an unclear macro backdrop and unsigned defence and space contracts. He also said Q3 and Q4 are seasonally stronger on a run-rate basis, which is the answer to the H2 step-up the release left unexplained.
- Growth CapEx is the new number. EUR 30-40m per annum of additional growth CapEx for at least two years, on top of the ~EUR 50m maintenance run-rate, board-approved and disclosed for the first time. Revenue from it lands largely in 2027 and it is explicitly not in current guidance.
- The energy proceeds got smaller and slower. Management now expects "at least another roughly EUR 50 million" in H2 against roughly EUR 88m still outstanding of the ~EUR 150m total — the year-end net cash position is still promised, but on a thinner cash inflow than the release implied.
- The one thing that matters: the story is now a capital-allocation story, not a margin story. Cash conversion targets ~50% this year before growth CapEx and M&A, and the extra EUR 30-40m a year lands on top of that, while a buyback is still gated by loan covenants. Free cash to shareholders is further away than the net-cash headline suggests.
- Tone flag: the CEO vacancy drew a verbatim re-reading of the prior statement and a deferral to Q3, with no view on internal versus external candidates.
Consensus scorecard
| Metric / basis | Quartr actual | API Ninjas consensus | Beat/Miss | Beat/Miss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (consolidated net sales, H1) | EUR 518.4m | API Ninjas estimate unavailable | Not scored | Not scored |
| EPS (reported, continuing operations, H1) | EUR 0.47 | API Ninjas estimate unavailable | Not scored | Not scored |
Guidance & KPIs
| Item | New on the call | Prior guide | Prior-year actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 net sales | Reiterated, above EUR 1.0bn | Above EUR 1.0bn | EUR 464.0m in H1 2025 |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA | Reiterated, above EUR 185m; expected to equal reported | Above EUR 185m | EUR 77.6m in H1 2025 |
| Aerostructures EBITDA margin | Moving to the 19% range in 2026 | 20% medium-term ambition | 18.3% in H1 2026 |
| Growth CapEx | +EUR 30-40m p.a. for at least two years | Not previously guided | ~EUR 50m maintenance run-rate |
| Cash conversion | ~50% in 2026, above 50% thereafter, before growth CapEx and M&A | Unchanged | Not disclosed |
| Energy disposal proceeds | At least ~EUR 50m in H2 2026 | ~EUR 88m outstanding of ~EUR 150m | EUR 62.0m received in H1 |
Management commentary
- Commercial aerospace order book is above EUR 7bn, from EUR 3.9bn in 2021, built on contracted shipset value times contract duration times Montana's own build-rate assumptions, which the CFO stated are below OEM build rates.
- Space is now tracking toward 10% of group revenue in 2026, roughly EUR 100m per annum, from a standing start three years ago; the Lockheed Martin partnership was expanded and two further European defence discussions are expected to conclude in H2.
- On why guidance is not moving despite customers guiding higher ramp rates: "we are more conservative versus our customers on their growth expectations," pointing to the last several years as the reason.
- Factoring will stay structurally lower. Management stopped non-recourse factoring for a financially distressed customer entirely, which cost H1 cash flow but removes an expensive risk-mitigation line.
- A buyback or dividend remains a stated intention rather than a commitment, currently constrained by loan requirements; management said the company is "not far away" from that stage.
Quality of earnings
- No adjustments, confirmed on the call. The CFO stated H1 EBITDA of EUR 87.1m carried no adjustments and that 2026 adjusted EBITDA will probably equal reported, so the 12.2% growth needs no discount.
- The EPS jump is still financial, not operational. EPS of EUR 0.47 from EUR (0.04) was attributed to the absence of the prior year's non-cash FX hit rather than to trading; EBIT rose 22.3% while the result of the period rose to almost EUR 30m from EUR (2.4)m.
- Operating cash flow weakness is now explained but not fixed. The EUR 26m operating cash flow reflects inventory pre-buying against Middle East supply risk plus the withdrawn customer factoring; management expects working capital to improve only progressively through supplier and customer terms.
Gotchas & watch items
- The additional EUR 30-40m annual growth CapEx sits outside guidance on the cost side while its revenue arrives in 2027 — 2026 free cash flow absorbs the spend without the offsetting sales.
- Machine lead times of close to a year mean the market-share wins funded by that CapEx do not industrialise until 2027, so any 2026 upside must come from existing capacity.
- Management flagged the EUR/USD move to ~1.09 from ~1.17 as taking "a bit away of the dynamic" from the 12% sales growth, while the release states guidance assumes 1.18-1.19.
- The CEO search produced no new information: no internal-versus-external lean, no timeline beyond a Q3 update, with responsibilities spread across the group management board in the interim.
Event: https://web.quartr.com/companies/14832/events/557847/overview Retrieved: 2026-08-13T12:50:00Z Comparison mode: maximal · Scorecard contract: v1 Montana Aerospace reports half-yearly, so every figure above is H1 despite the Q2 2026 event label.