NU Q2 2026 - Post-Call Earnings Update
Verdict
- The risk-adjusted NIM guide moved up, and that is the call's news. Management now expects the record 12.4% to hold "in the same region... for the foreseeable future," against the roughly 10.5-10.8% by year-end framing given on the Q1 call.
- No per-share figure anywhere on the call, so the $0.1984 consensus still has nothing to compare against. Net income of $1,061.1m was confirmed, up 17% sequentially and 49% year on year.
- The only quantified financial guide is the efficiency ratio, held at roughly 20% for the full year against 19.5% in the quarter; management repeated that Q1's 17.6% "was not a run-rate."
- The one thing that matters: the CFO explicitly declined to call 12.4% a floor, and the drivers he named — lending growth matriculating from Q4/Q1, seasonal cost of credit, and the Desenrola program at about 5% of cost of credit — are timing effects, not a new structural margin. The guide moved up on a quarter whose composition management itself describes as seasonal.
- Tone flag: on the first billion-dollar quarter, the CEO said "we're not in a mode of optimizing for net income or increasing earnings" — the milestone framing and the reinvestment framing point in opposite directions.
Consensus scorecard
| Metric / basis | Quartr actual | API Ninjas consensus | Beat/Miss | Beat/Miss % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (IFRS total revenue) | $5,513.2m | $5,385.8m | Beat +$127.4m | +2.4% |
| EPS | Not disclosed in the release | $0.1984 | Not comparable | — |
Guidance & KPIs
| Item | New on the call | Prior guide | Prior-year actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk-adjusted NIM | Sustainable near 12.4%; expressly not called a floor | Back to ~10.5-10.8% by end-2026 | 9.9% |
| Efficiency ratio | ~20% average for FY 2026 | Q1's 17.6% flagged as not a run-rate | 21.3% |
| Desenrola benefit | ~5% of cost of credit; over four-fifths taken in Q2, remainder in Q3 | Not quantified | n/a |
| Headcount | 10,400, with no significant increase or decrease planned | Growing | 10,500 (Q1 2026) |
| US employees | 1% of total moving toward 2% | n/a | n/a |
| Private payroll lending | Accelerating month-over-month; targeting a leading position over 18-24 months | Deliberately slow | n/a |
Management commentary
- The 290bp sequential risk-adjusted NIM expansion was bridged as +178bps credit income and +115bps lower cost of credit, with float and funding costs neutral. Desenrola sits inside the cost-of-credit piece and was called "a minority of the impact."
- The 16bp improvement in 15-90 day delinquency was 37bps of seasonality offset by 24bps added back by deliberate expansion into higher-loss, higher-return cohorts. The allowance rose from $6.1bn to $6.6bn: $342m from portfolio growth, $170m from those same risk expansions.
- Mexico's banking licence was approved this month at 16m customers, unlocking payroll direct deposit and higher deposit insurance. Deposits there fell again to $5.7bn on deliberate optimisation, leaving a 35% loan-to-deposit ratio.
- On credit quality: "we don't really see any significant or structural deterioration in our numbers," with the CEO adding that every underwriting decision already assumes the future is worse than the past.
- Conspicuously absent: any 2027 growth number, any Croma or Mexico revenue target, and any answer on the US launch beyond hiring intent.
Quality of earnings
- The margin step-up rests on items management called temporary. Of the 115bps that lower cost of credit contributed to risk-adjusted NIM, Desenrola accounts for roughly 5% of the $1,690.8m cost of credit — about $85m — with more than four-fifths of the programme benefit already booked and only a residual left for Q3.
- The allowance build is growth and risk-taking, not deterioration. The $500m increase to $6.6bn splits $342m to portfolio growth and $170m to intentional risk expansion; coverage of 90+ balances stands at 244% and allowances equal 113% of new 15+ delinquency formation.
- The efficiency ratio moved the wrong way for the right reason. Operating expenses of $806m were up 20% sequentially on real estate and marketing timing that shifted out of Q1, taking the ratio to 19.5% from 17.6% — management guides to ~20% for the year, so Q2 is the run-rate and Q1 was not.
Gotchas & watch items
- The 90+ NPL ratio rose 35bps to 6.9% on a credit book up 37%, and management's own bridge attributes 24bps of the early-delinquency picture to cohorts chosen for higher expected losses. Those vintages have not yet aged into the 90+ bucket.
- The upgraded risk-adjusted NIM guide was given without a 2027 growth number attached; the CEO declined to give one twice.
- Mexico deposits have now fallen for a second straight quarter to $5.7bn in the market just designated the second core franchise, with the loan-to-deposit ratio at 35%.
- Headcount fell to 10,400 and management expects it flat, while simultaneously describing a US market launch and expanded GPU fleet — the cost of that build has to appear somewhere within a ~20% efficiency ratio.
Event: https://web.quartr.com/companies/11343/events/669376/overview Retrieved: 2026-08-14T10:25:00Z Comparison mode: maximal · Scorecard contract: v1 Nu discloses no earnings per share in its release, presentation or call, and Quartr standardised financials carry none, so the EPS consensus remains unmatched.