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Actuals vs. estimates
| Metric | Actual | Consensus | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueTotal revenue | $14.57B | $12.87B | ▲ Beat +13.2% |
| EPS(GAAP diluted) | $0.35 | $0.13 | ▲ Beat +160.0% |
Verdict
- Revenue of $14,575 million beat the API Ninjas estimate of $12,873.5 million by 13.2%, and diluted EPS of $0.35 beat the $0.1346 estimate by 160.0%, with net income of $4,404 million against a $1,054 million loss a year ago.
- Super Intelligence did the work: SI revenue of $7,560 million rose 830% year-over-year, $7,022 million of it solutions and infrastructure, and is now larger than Connectivity's $5,248 million (up 69%) and Space's $1,767 million (up 6%) combined.
- The release carries no revenue, earnings or capital-expenditure outlook for the fourth quarter or 2027.
- The one thing that matters: the inflection is real but it is being funded well ahead of itself. SI capital expenditure of $16,444 million in the quarter alone exceeded total company revenue of $14,575 million, and nothing in the release frames how long that gap runs.
Key metrics
| Metric | Reported | Prior year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | $4.4 billion | net loss of $1.1 billion | an improvement of $5.5 billion |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $8.8 billion | $2.2 billion | up 306% |
| Connectivity revenues | $5.2 billion | — | up 22% sequentially and 69% year-over-year |
| SI revenues | $7.6 billion | — | up 195% sequentially and 830% year-over-year |
| Starlink consumer subscribers | 13.6 million | 12.0 | up 1.6 million sequentially |
| Capex, total | $19,593 | $6,880 | — |
Guidance changes
No financial guidance change disclosed.
Quality of earnings
- The headline profit is not operating profit. Income from operations was $2,791 million while net income reached $4,404 million; the gap sits below the line in $1,025 million of other income, $873 million of interest income and a $390 million tax benefit, against $675 million of interest expense.
- Diluted EPS of $0.35 is struck on a transformed share count: 12,475 million diluted shares against 2,941 million a year ago, after $85,675 million of net IPO proceeds in the nine months. Nine-month results are still a net loss of $413 million.
- SI's reported operating income of $431 million absorbs $1,217 million of share-based compensation tied to the Cursor acquisition, which itself contributed $608 million of revenue from its August 14 close.
Gotchas & watch items
- Space is the laggard inside the growth story: revenue of $1,767 million grew only 6% year-over-year, the segment lost $7 million at the operating line, and total launches fell to 35 from 44.
- Starlink consumer ARPU of $69 improved 5% sequentially but sits below $83 a year ago, so the move to 13.6 million consumer subscribers is coming at a lower price per user.
- The funding gap is structural: nine-month capital expenditure of $48,069 million against $13,097 million of operating cash flow, bridged by $51,834 million of debt proceeds and $85,675 million of IPO proceeds.
- Two definitions changed this quarter — the AI segment is now reported as SI, and Total Satellites in Orbit now includes de-orbit approved satellites, which would have excluded approximately 400 satellites from the Q3 2026 total.