Actuals vs. estimates

Revenue — possible unit mismatch: actual is 19x the estimate

EPS — possible unit mismatch: actual is 74x the estimate

Verdict

• No consensus comparison: estimates are not on the same currency basis as the MXN results. Consolidated revenue rose 43.1% to MXN 4,832 million and EBITDA 39.6% to MXN 1,008 million on Tupperware's first full quarter.
• Organic growth was 2.3%: Betterware Mexico up 8.5% offset Jafra down 2.8%, and the CEO has taken over Jafra Mexico as interim managing director.
• Guidance: organic net revenue growth narrowed to 4%-5%, post-acquisition growth raised to 24%-26%, full-year EBITDA margin held at 19%.
• The one thing that matters: the headline is acquisition-driven and the organic guide now needs Q4 to deliver high-single-digit organic growth, resting on a Jafra turnaround to mid-single-digit growth from -2.8% in one quarter.

Guidance & KPIs

Management commentary

• CEO Andres Campos expects Jafra to reach mid-single-digit growth in Q4, which together with high-single-digit Betterware growth underpins high-single-digit organic growth for the quarter.
• Jafra's shortfall was blamed on inconsistent operating decisions at Jafra Mexico; the CEO said "we have been taking inconsistent decisions managerial-wise in Jafra Mexico."
• Tupperware Mexico direct selling grew 23% and Brazil's decline moderated to 3.3% after catalog redesign, a distributor confidence tour and promotions.
• Procurement and manufacturing synergies from Tupperware are not yet quantified; the first priority is revenue acceleration via innovation, technology and business intelligence investment.
• No long-term leverage target given; pro forma net debt to EBITDA is 1.65 times and deleveraging continues alongside a MXN 250 million dividend.

Quality of earnings

• Earnings lagged the top line. Net income grew 24.2% to MXN 390 million against 39.6% EBITDA growth and 43.1% revenue growth, with a higher effective tax rate cited; the full-year rate is expected in the mid-30s.
• Q3 carries MXN 47 million of Tupperware acquisition expenses booked in the consolidated and Betterware results, which management calls non-material on a full-year basis.
• Cash conversion was strong: free cash flow of MXN 1,059 million was 105% of EBITDA, with the cash conversion cycle at 50 days from 78 days.

Gotchas & watch items

• Consolidated EBITDA margin slipped to 20.9% from 21.4% despite operating expense discipline.
• Tupperware brand revenue declined 6.8% pro forma as exports and discontinued business-to-business sales lapped Q3 2025.
• Betterware gross margin pressured by freight costs on China-sourced product; management is weighing pricing and promotions to recover it.
• Jafra Plus app launch slipped to the beginning of next year after delays.

Last quarter's watch items: what happened

• No watch items on file from a prior quarter - this is the first tracked quarter for this company.

Next quarter: the 2-3 things that matter

• Jafra returns to growth under the CEO's interim management Baseline: Jafra total revenue down 2.8% in Q3 2026 Confirms: Jafra revenue up mid-single digits year over year in Q4 Breaks: Jafra revenue flat or down year over year in Q4 Check in: Q4 2026. Source: Q&A response on narrowed organic guidance
• Full-year organic revenue growth within the narrowed range Baseline: FY2026 organic net revenue growth guided to 4%-5%; Q3 organic growth 2.3% Confirms: FY2026 organic growth of 4% or more Breaks: FY2026 organic growth below 4% Check in: Q4 2026. Source: CFO guidance remarks
• Betterware gross margin recovery from freight pressure Baseline: Betterware gross margin pressured by freight costs in Q3 2026; consolidated EBITDA margin 20.9% Confirms: Betterware gross margin improves sequentially with pricing actions Breaks: Further Betterware gross margin decline or full-year EBITDA margin below 19% Check in: Q4 2026. Source: Q&A on Betterware gross margin