RevenueTotal sales, nine months ended September 30, 2026
$19.79B
$6.26B
▲ Beat +215.9%
EPS(non-GAAP adjusted diluted)
$2.20
$1.96
▲ Beat +12.2%
Verdict
Adjusted EPS of $2.20 came in 12% above the $1.96 estimate, on adjusted net income of $2,309 million against $1,883 million a year ago; reported net income was $2,475 million, or $2.35 per diluted share.
Sales rose 15% to $6,363 million from $5,524 million, with gold at $5,228 million and other metals at $1,135 million against $855 million as Penasquito volumes recovered.
Cost guidance improved while volume guidance held: full-year by-product CAS to $925 and AISC to $1,520 per ounce, attributable production unchanged at 5,260 thousand ounces, which leaves 1,365 thousand ounces to come in the fourth quarter.
Capital returns stayed heavy: $1.6 billion of buybacks since the July call, $2.8 billion left of the $6.0 billion authorisation, and $3.2 billion of net cash before the $1.95 billion due to Barrick.
The one thing that matters: the quarter was carried by price, not ounces. Gold sold fell to 1,211 thousand ounces from 1,319 at a realised $4,317 versus $3,539, and the unchanged full-year number needs a record fourth quarter with Lihir water supply at risk.
Key metrics
Metric
Reported
Prior year
Change
Attributable gold production
1,302 thousand ounces
—
+1% vs prior quarter
Gold by-product CAS per ounce
$832
$831
—
Gold by-product AISC per ounce
$1,454
$1,303
—
Average realized gold price
$4,317 per ounce
$3,539
—
Free cash flow
$1,912
$1,571
—
Net cash position
$3.2 billion
—
—
Guidance changes
Item
New guidance
Prior guidance
FY 2026 attributable gold production
5,260 Koz
—
FY 2026 gold by-product CAS
$925 per ounce
—
FY 2026 gold by-product AISC
$1,520 per ounce
—
Q4 2026 attributable gold production
1,365 Koz
—
Q4 2026 gold by-product AISC
$1,900 per ounce
—
2027 development capital
expected to increase by approximately $ 500 million compared to 2026
—
Quality of earnings
The earnings growth is price and co-products, not mining more gold. Sales rose 15% on 1,211 thousand gold ounces sold against 1,319 a year ago, with realised gold at $4,317 per ounce versus $3,539 and other metal sales at $1,135 million versus $855 million on 11 million ounces of silver.
Reported profit is the flattered number, not adjusted. Net income of $2,475 million includes a $215 million valuation-allowance and other tax benefit that adjusted net income strips out, leaving ANI of $2,309 million, up 23% on $1,883 million, after adding back $116 million of reclamation charges.
Cash conversion lagged earnings: operating cash fell 5% sequentially to $2,768 million on a $565 million working-capital use, $318 million of it receivables, while adjusted EBITDA rose to $3,951 million from $3,309 million.
Gotchas & watch items
Unit costs improved on credits rather than costs: by-product CAS of $832 per ounce is flat on $831 a year ago and AISC of $1,454 is 12% above $1,303, with the better full-year guidance attributed to higher realised co-product pricing.
Fourth-quarter cost guidance of $1,250 CAS and $1,900 AISC per ounce sits far above the quarter just reported, with Penasquito silver expected to halve from third-quarter volume.
Holding 5,260 thousand ounces for the year needs 1,365 thousand in the fourth quarter after 1,302 in the third, while the company flags intensifying El Nino conditions that may hit both production and costs at Lihir.
2027 is pre-flagged as more expensive: unit costs trend higher on inflation above the 3% assumption and development capital rises about $500 million, with Red Chris alone carrying $4.2 to $4.8 billion for production in 2033.