Revenue of $1.4 billion missed the $1.44 billion API Ninjas estimate by 2.7%, and GAAP EPS of $0.51 missed the $0.558 estimate by 8.6%; the revenue figure is the rounded number given on the call, up 12% year over year.
Cost guidance tightened: full-year adjusted OpEx and SBC is now $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion, the top end cut by $25 million, after Q3 came in at $664 million. Adjusted EBITDA was a record $808 million, up 9%, at a 57% margin.
Volume was not the problem: equities, options and margin volumes were each up around 50% year over year and event contracts 7x. Take rate was, with management pointing to the lower-monetizing stablecoin Earn product (over $500 million of assets) in crypto and tighter spreads into October.
Funding momentum reaccelerated after a softer Q3: October net deposits were over $13 billion against $16 billion for all of Q3, though $6 billion of October is the Dell gift to Trump accounts.
The one thing that matters: revenue grew 12% while trading volumes rose around 50%, so monetization per trade fell sharply, and management guided October spreads tighter still. The EPS miss is partly a $0.07 mark-to-market hit, but the revenue gap is the core issue.
Guidance & KPIs
Item
New guidance
Prior guidance
FY2026 adjusted OpEx and SBC
$2.675 billion to $2.75 billion
—
FY2026 Trump accounts investment
about $100 million
about $100 million
Management commentary
CFO Shiv Verma attributed lower crypto take rate to the stablecoin Earn product, saying that excluding it the rate was similar to the prior quarter.
On rates, management said each 25 basis point move changes revenue by about 1.5%, on roughly $40 billion of interest-sensitive assets.
Management said Q4 spending rises for Trump accounts, credit card scaling and pulled-forward 2027 investments, with Trump accounts still about a $100 million full-year investment.
Year-to-date net deposits passed $68 billion by October, which management said already exceeds the 20% annual net deposit growth target.
Shiv Verma on early Q4: "Early indications are spreads are a little bit tighter."
Quality of earnings
The GAAP EPS miss is partly non-operating. The $0.51 includes a $0.07 mark-to-market loss on investments; the newly introduced adjusted EPS, which strips investment gains and losses but keeps normal-course SBC, was $0.60.
Profit grew slower than revenue. Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% against 12% revenue growth, despite adjusted OpEx and SBC held to $664 million, within the prior outlook.
A new adjusted metric arrives in a miss quarter. Adjusted EPS of $0.60 sits $0.09 above GAAP; the definition excludes investment marks that will recur as Robinhood Ventures and equity stakes such as the 1% Crypto.com and OG.com holdings grow.
Gotchas & watch items
Take-rate pressure is building: management said October spreads are a little tighter, with equities, options and crypto volumes about 5% below the Q3 record.
October deposits are flattered: $6 billion of the over $13 billion October net deposits is the one-off Dell family gift to Trump accounts.
Robinhood Chain is smaller net than gross: about $50 million of chain fees in the quarter, but roughly half is shared with Arbitrum, leaving about $25 million net.
Prediction markets are diversifying: non-sports contracts were about 30% of the quarter, up from 15% the quarter before, and Rothera reached $100 million of annualized revenue in its first full quarter.
Last quarter's watch items: what happened
No watch items on file from a prior quarter - this is the first tracked quarter for this company.
Next quarter: the 2-3 things that matter
Transaction take rate versus volume growth Baseline: Q3 revenue up 12% while equities, options and margin volumes rose around 50%; October spreads tighter Confirms: Q4 revenue growth again trails volume growth by a wide margin, or management cites lower take rates Breaks: Q4 revenue growth closes most of the gap to volume growth Check in: Q4 2026. Source: CFO prepared remarks and Q&A on take rates
Full-year adjusted OpEx and SBC delivery Baseline: FY2026 outlook $2.675 billion to $2.75 billion; Q3 $664 million Confirms: Full-year adjusted OpEx and SBC lands inside the $2.675 to $2.75 billion range Breaks: Full-year figure exceeds $2.75 billion Check in: Q4 2026. Source: CFO prepared remarks on Q4 outlook
Net deposits excluding Trump account gifts Baseline: Q3 net deposits $16 billion; October over $13 billion including $6 billion Dell gift Confirms: Q4 net deposits excluding the Dell gift exceed Q3's $16 billion Breaks: Q4 net deposits excluding the Dell gift fall below $16 billion Check in: Q4 2026. Source: CFO prepared remarks on October net deposits